Quantum Computing

Sector thesis

Quantum computing is a fundamentally different way of processing information. Instead of the 1s and 0s that power every computer you own, quantum machines use quantum bits—which can be 1, 0, or both at once—to solve certain types of problems exponentially faster. Right now, we're in the early innings: machines are still small, error-prone, and mostly used by researchers and large tech companies. But the potential is enormous—drug discovery, materials science, optimization problems that would take classical computers millennia could theoretically be solved in hours. The megatrend is simple: as classical computing hits physical limits, industries are betting that quantum will unlock new frontiers. AI compute (which we already track) is one driver—quantum could accelerate machine learning in ways we're still discovering. But the real pull comes from sectors like pharma, finance, and manufacturing, which have trillion-dollar problems that only quantum might solve. The sector breaks into three buckets: hardware makers (companies building the actual quantum processors), software and algorithms (tools to program and use them), and cloud platforms (letting customers access quantum machines remotely without owning one). Think of it like early cloud computing—the infrastructure layer, the application layer, and the access layer all matter. The biggest risk is simple: quantum computers that actually work at scale don't exist yet. We're 5–15 years away from "useful" quantum machines, and that timeline keeps shifting. You could invest in a company that never reaches that milestone. There's also massive technical uncertainty—different approaches (superconducting qubits, trapped ions, photonics) may win or lose. For a retail portfolio, this is a small, high-risk allocation—if any. Watch for milestones: error correction breakthroughs, industry partnerships, and real-world problem-solving (not just lab demos). This isn't a 2–3 year bet; it's a 10+ year conviction play.