Market thermometer
Risk Score
A daily 0-100 score for how much risk we see in the US market. Based on 7 quantitative signals (volatility, credit spreads, breadth, etc.) plus a narrative read of financial X/Twitter.
The market is in a calm, healthy phase. No warning signals.
A good time to buy or hold. Invest as usual.
The score is rising — tension is building vs recent weeks.
⚠ Mixed signals — the hard numbers and the market mood are pointing in different directions right now
The detailed read
Quantitative indicators unavailable due to missing live market data feeds, forcing reliance on narrative signals showing mounting defensive positioning. FinTwit reveals hedge funds trimming net leverage via index puts, VIX term structure flattening for first time since April, and multiple accounts rotating from NVDA into TLT/gold while retail still chases AI weekly calls. Composite defaults to narrative's 5.8/10 given absence of quant confirmation; the put/call rotation and liquidity drain warnings in SOFR/repo suggest pre-positioning for stress not yet visible in unavailable quant metrics.
Updated July 15, 2026
30-day history
Composite score per day
What does this score mean?
0-30 (Low risk): The broader market is healthy. Risk-on environment.
30-50 (Normal): Standard volatility. No extreme signals.
50-70 (Elevated): Stress in parts of the market. Be careful with new positions.
70-100 (High risk): Multiple crash signals are flashing. Think defensively.
This score is not a forecast. A high score means historically there has been more risk in the market — not that a crash will happen tomorrow. Use it as one of several inputs to your own decisions.