Market thermometer
Risk Score
A daily 0-100 score for how much risk we see in the US market. Based on 7 quantitative signals (volatility, credit spreads, breadth, etc.) plus a narrative read of financial X/Twitter.
Quantitative indicators remain in mid-range territory with HY spreads at 330-370bp and VIX in the 14-17 range, but the narrative stream reveals accelerating defensive positioning — multiple family offices rotating from Mag7 to short-duration Treasuries, hedge funds cutting net exposure below 60%, and macro accounts loading their first VIX hedges since Q4 2025. This pre-positioning divergence, with FinTwit sentiment at 7.2/10 versus quant at 5.8/10, historically leads market stress by several weeks; composite elevated to 6.8/10 to reflect smart-money defensive rotation ahead of quantitative confirmation.
⚠ Divergence: quantitative and narrative signals are pointing in opposite directions
Updated June 12, 2026
30-day history
Composite score per day
What does this score mean?
0-30 (Low risk): The broader market is healthy. Risk-on environment.
30-50 (Normal): Standard volatility. No extreme signals.
50-70 (Elevated): Stress in parts of the market. Be careful with new positions.
70-100 (High risk): Multiple crash signals are flashing. Think defensively.
This score is not a forecast. A high score means historically there has been more risk in the market — not that a crash will happen tomorrow. Use it as one of several inputs to your own decisions.