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Macro

Yield Curve

A yield curve is a graph showing the interest rates (or 'yields') the government pays on bonds of different time lengths. It answers the question: does the government pay more interest if you lend it money for 10 years versus 2 years? You'll hear about it in financial news because the curve's shape hints at whether investors expect economic growth or trouble ahead. When longer bonds pay much more than shorter ones, that's normal and suggests confidence. When they pay *less*, it's unusual and often signals recession fears. Think of it like a snapshot of investor mood about the future.

Updated July 1, 2026.